That is the most likely scenario, given that Djokovic has won all 27 matches that he has played this year — including five tournaments — while Nadal’s last defeat on clay came fully 34 games and two years ago against Robin Soderling in Paris.
Unless someone pulls off a stunning feat of giant-killing, it will be the indomitable Serb against the invincible Spaniard on Sunday. Djokovic has the form, having beaten his former nemesis in five of their last six meetings, but Nadal will enjoy both the fervent support of his home crowd and the shift from hard courts to clay, the surface he has made his personal fiefdom.
Can anyone derail either of these two trains before they meet head-on? Well, Andy Murray has a shot at a semi-final against Djokovic — a potential rematch of the Australian Open final – if he can come through a quarter of the draw that includes Gael Monfils and Tomas Berdych.
But this would be a lot to ask. While the Big Two have been polishing their latest trophies, Murray has only just emerged from the worst losing streak of his career — the one that started with that morale-shredding loss to Djokovic at Melbourne Park, and continued through inept performances in Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Miami.
He has been in Spain for over a week, first recovering from the sore elbow that kept him out of the Barcelona Open, and then working with Darren Cahill, the team adidas coach who will help him as a consultant until a more permanent coaching appointment can be found. There was also a 16-game practice match against Nadal himself, which ended up in an 8-8 draw.
Granted a first-round bye, Murray will enter the singles on Wednesday against either the Frenchman Gilles Simon or Croatia’s Ivan Ljubicic — a demanding opener for a man with little live tournament action behind him, but one he should survive if he recovers the form he showed in Monte Carlo last month.
On Tuesday, Murray is expected to play doubles with brother Jamie, but the main attraction at the Park Manzanares will be Mikhail Youzhny’s tussle with the unseeded Juan Martin del Potro, a dangerous “floater” in the men’s draw who dominated all-comers in the Estoril Open last week.
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